“Take the win: NO thesis played out (bought avg 0.568, now bid 0.75). My refined fair P(NO) fell from 0.86 to ~0.75 because June CPI 3.5% left only 0.3pp cushion and energy is rebounding off a crashed June base (WTI ~$80, gas $3.87 rising on Hormuz blockade) — the exact tail risk ”How well are these calls calibrated? →