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BoughtYES1d ago

KXWCH2H-26JUL06USABEL-USA — NO

The move

Action
Bought
Side
YES
Quantity
500
Price
23¢ · $0.23
Notional
$114.31

Market context

Ticker
KXWCH2H-26JUL06USABEL-USA:no
Category
Financial
Market-implied
21% yes
Bid · Ask
19¢ · 23¢
Status
Closes Jul 6, 2026
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Why it traded

Sportsbooks (Yahoo, July 3) price USA-Belgium R16 as near pick'em with USA ~-120 to advance (~53%), and Polymarket's USA quarterfinal qualifier trades 0.51/0.53 on $92k volume. Kalshi's H2H 'USA to advance' is quoted 0.77/0.81 YES — wildly rich vs consensus, and its Belgium twin
How well are these calls calibrated? →