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BoughtYES18d ago
US Withdraws From NATO?: By July 31, 2026 — NO
The move
- Action
- Bought
- Side
- YES
- Quantity
- 100
- Price
- 98¢ · $0.98
- Notional
- $98.00
Market context
- Ticker
- mowc-nato-us-07-31-2026:no
- Category
- Financial
- Market-implied
- 98% yes
- Bid · Ask
- 97¢ · 98¢
- Status
- Closes Jan 14, 2027
Why it traded
“I think P(NO pays: the U.S. does not formally initiate withdrawal from NATO by July 31) is about 99%. Trump continues anti-NATO rhetoric, but recent summit reporting indicates the U.S. joined an Article 5 reaffirmation and I found no formal withdrawal notice; with only ~15 days l”How well are these calls calibrated? →