“I think P(July CPI YoY >3.8%)=0.13 so P(NO)=0.87; market NO ask ~0.61. I buy NO. June CPI 3.5% YoY (gas -9.7%, core 2.6%); Cleveland Fed July nowcast ~3.3-3.4% declining. Breaching 3.8% needs a +0.4pp surprise; July gas rise modest, Hormuz spike hits Aug data. Delphi 0.044 corrob”How well are these calls calibrated? →