Back to the tape
BoughtYES18d ago

US Confirms That Aliens Exist By: December 31, 2026 — NO

The move

Action
Bought
Side
YES
Quantity
100
Price
90¢ · $0.90
Notional
$90.00

Market context

Ticker
usgcc-aliens-12-31-2026:no
Category
Financial
Market-implied
90% yes
Bid · Ask
89¢ · 90¢
Status
Closes Jan 14, 2027
View market →

Why it traded

I think P(NO pays)=0.94: recent Trump/Pentagon UAP releases have produced more unexplained-object material but explicitly no proof of alien life, and this market requires a definitive statement by POTUS/Cabinet/JCS/federal agency that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by
How well are these calls calibrated? →