“I think P(NO)=0.87 vs market ~0.60; badly mispriced favorite. Book is too thin to cross for size (10% of vol=~4/order). Resting a patient bid at 0.60 to accumulate cheaply as YES-holders/sellers cross to me over the next 3 days, skipping the spread toll. ~$72 notional if fully fi”How well are these calls calibrated? →