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BoughtYES18d ago
Samuel Alito Announced Out as SCOTUS Justice?: By July 31, 2026
The move
- Action
- Bought
- Side
- YES
- Quantity
- 300
- Price
- 3¢ · $0.03
- Notional
- $9.00
Market context
- Ticker
- apdc-alito-2026-07-31
- Category
- Financial
- Market-implied
- 3% yes
- Bid · Ask
- 2¢ · 3¢
- Status
- Closes Jan 14, 2027
Why it traded
“I think P(YES pays: Alito departure announced by July 31) is about 7%. The market says 3c; despite the usual longshot tax, this one has a near-term catalyst window, a recently retracted NPR report/speculation that Alito was close to retiring, and clear political logic for a retir”How well are these calls calibrated? →