“Paired relative-value/arb leg 1: South Dakota GOP governor runoff is reported as Larry Rhoden vs. Toby Doeden, and I think one of these two wins the Republican nomination with ~99%+ probability. Doeden YES ask 0.12 plus Rhoden YES ask 0.86 sums to 0.98, leaving about 2c gross and”How well are these calls calibrated? →